⚠️ Heads Up: This is Based on Leaked Data
Everything in this guide comes from advancing my system clock and pulling trial data straight from the game client. As a game dev myself, I know this stuff can change before release. I'll update this once Embark drops the official patch notes and the event actually goes live.
What I Found in the Trials
So I jumped forward one and two weeks (Jan 19th and 26th) and pulled the trial data. Both weeks have brand new "Toxic Swamp" objectives that look like a full-blown map condition, not just a trial modifier.
Week 1 Trials (January 19th)
- Damage Queens or Matriarchs
- Search First Wave Husks
- Toxic Swamp/Deliver Thermal Rocks NEW
- Deal Damage to Shredders
- Open Arc Probes
Week 2 Trials (January 26th)
- Toxic Swamp/Keep Air Purifiers Powered On during Toxic Swamp - Clean Air NEW
- Destroy Ticks, Fireballs and Pops
- Damage Wasps
- Harvest Plants
- Damage Rocketeers, Leapers or Bastions
Breaking Down the New Mechanics
Thermal Rocks
Week 1 references Thermal Rocks—basically new collectibles you'll need to hunt down and deliver somewhere (I'm betting Hydroponic Domes on Dam Battlegrounds). This is giving me similar vibes to how Cold Snap changed the game, but instead of just "don't freeze to death," you're actively collecting and delivering stuff.
Here's something interesting: there are already "Volcanic Rocks" in the game that do literally nothing. You can pick them up and throw them, but that's it. Are these related to thermal rocks? Will they suddenly matter? We'll see.
Air Purifiers & Clean Air Zones
Week 2 gets wild: "Keep Air Purifiers Powered On during Toxic Swamp - Clean Air". This tells me a lot about how the event will work:
- Stationary Purifier Machines: There'll be fixed purifiers somewhere (my money's on Hydroponic Domes) that you need to keep running
- Wave-Based Toxic Gas: That "during Toxic Swamp" phrasing? Yeah, the gas probably comes in waves, not 24/7.
- You'll Need to Power Them: Could be thermal rocks, could be those "broken air filters" we currently just recycle for materials. Maybe both?
- Safe Zones: Purifiers probably create clean air bubbles where you can breathe safely (be ready for PvP if you're in an aggressive lobby)
The trial screenshot shows a computer station that looks exactly like Hydroponic Domes interior on Dam—the swamp section. I don't think it's a coincidence.
New Theory: ARC Defense Mode?
Here's a wild idea I just had: what if turning on the air purifiers attracts ARC enemies? Think about it—this is a PvPvE game. The trial says "Keep Air Purifiers Powered On," not just "Turn them on." That "keep" implies active defense.
My speculation: Maybe the swamp became toxic because ARC dropped some kind of weapon (dirty bomb? toxic payload?) to kill off Raiders. So when you power up purifiers to clean the air, ARC robots hear that and swarm the location to shut them down. You'd need to constantly fight off waves of ARC enemies to keep the purifiers running.
This would make perfect sense from a game design perspective:
- Creates PvPvE tension—you're fighting ARC while vulnerable to other Raiders
- Explains why it's a trial (requires actual combat skill, not just fetch quests)
- Fits the "during Toxic Swamp" phrasing (active defense during the event window)
- Gives those Hydroponic Dome interiors a purpose beyond just scenery
Could be totally wrong, but it would be way more interesting than just "deliver items and walk away." We'll find out soon enough.
Toxic Fumes: Health or Stamina Drain?
Cold Snap slowly kills you when you're outside. Toxic Swamp needs to be different or it's just Cold Snap with a green filter. Here's what I think could happen:
- Stamina Drain: Makes way more sense. Can't sprint, can't dodge roll, can't climb. Forces you to plan your routes. There are already stamina-draining gas grenades in the game, so the system exists.
- Health Drain: The boring option. Just Cold Snap but green.
- Combo Attack: Slower stamina regen + minor health drain? Could be interesting tactically.
Oh, and those gas masks you find lying around that do absolutely nothing? I'm calling it now—they're about to become useful.
It's Very Likely Dam Battlegrounds
All the evidence screams Dam Battlegrounds:
- The map literally has massive swamp areas around Hydroponic Domes. It's in the name.
- The trial screenshot interior? That's 100% Dam hudroponc dome architecture. I've died there enough times to know.
- Cold Snap hit all maps, but Embark's been doing map-specific events now (Blue Gate's Locked Gate, Hidden Bunker). Makes sense they'd give Dam its own thing.
- "Toxic Swamp" isn't exactly subtle naming here.
Could it hit other maps too? Maybe. But if I'm loading into Dam next week and there's no toxic gas, I'll eat my keyboard.
💭 Reddit is Having a Moment
The Arc Raiders subreddit immediately lost it when this leaked. Best comment: "Toxic swamp? Did Miyazaki join the dev team??" (For non-Souls players: FromSoftware's Hidetaka Miyazaki is infamous for putting poison swamps in every single game. It's a meme at this point.)
Some people think it'll just be Cold Snap with a green filter. I really hope Embark doesn't do that. One player suggested stamina drain instead of health damage, which would actually make this tactically different and way more interesting. Fingers crossed they went that route.
What This Might Mean Long-Term
Wait, Is There a New Map Coming?
So here's something wild: Embark showed this screenshot during their 2023 GDC talk. It's got this toxic green puddle in a crater, structures that don't match ANY current map. Could this be a full Toxic Swamp map down the line? Or just early Dam concept art? No clue, but it's interesting timing.
I actually built an interactive board analyzing this and other potential new map leaks. Vision cones, marker groups, the whole deal. Check it out if you're into that kind of detective work.
Thermal Rock Spawn Guide
I've already created a thermal rock spawn locations guide with my predictions on where they'll spawn (based on environment art analysis). Once the event drops, I'm immediately updating it with confirmed locations, interactive markers, and efficient farming routes—same treatment as my Candleberry guide. If you need to farm thermal rocks for trials, bookmark that guide now.
Embark's Building a Weather System
Look at the pattern: Cold Snap (freezing), Hidden Bunker (underground), Locked Gate (timed access), and now Toxic Swamp (hazardous atmosphere). Embark's clearly building a robust environmental condition system. As a game dev, I respect this approach—reusable systems that create variety without reinventing the wheel every time.
What's next? Community's already speculating:
- Volcanic/Heat Map: Those volcanic rocks gotta be used for something, right? Summer-themed map incoming?
- Radiation Zones: Similar to toxic gas but different damage model
- Electrical Storms: Actually already in the game as Electromagnetic Storm events with lightning strikes
When's This Actually Dropping?
My bet? Tomorrow - Tuesday, January 13th. Here's why:
- Cold Snap ends today (Monday, January 12th). Perfect timing.
- Tuesday is literally Arc Raiders' patch day. Always has been.
- The leaked trials start January 19th—exactly one week after tomorrow's patch.
- Embark hasn't dropped major content in 3 weeks. They're due.
If it doesn't drop tomorrow, it'll be soon. The trial data is already in the client. From a dev perspective, that means it's ready to flip the switch.
📝 I'll Update This Once It's Official
Look, this is all based on leaked data. Could Embark change stuff? Absolutely. Once they announce it officially and the event actually goes live, I'll update this guide with confirmed mechanics, real screenshots, and remove anything that turned out to be wrong. The URL stays the same though—gotta keep those SEO rankings for everyone Googling "thermal rock locations" next week.
Bookmark this and check back after Tuesday's patch!
What to Prep Right Now
Loadout suggestions:
- Stack stamina shots if it drains stamina (my guess)
- Healing items if it's just Cold Snap 2.0
- Gas masks—might finally be useful, we'll see
- Extra inventory space for thermal rocks
Where to scout:
- Hydroponic Domes on Dam—I'm 90% sure this is ground zero
- Swamp areas around the Domes
- Science outposts for air purifiers
- Learn Dam's indoor routes now—might save your life
I'll update this with confirmed spawn locations and strategies once the event drops!
💬 Let's Theory-Craft Together
Want to discuss theories, coordinate thermal rock farming routes, or just geek out about game mechanics? I'm hanging out in our Discord with other Raiders who are equally hyped about this.
I'll drop real-time updates when the event launches. See you topside.
Don't die to the gas, Raiders.
//-Arc Raiders Hub (solo dev, game dev, probably too invested in this game)